A Bayesian Variant of Shafer's Commonalities For Modelling Unforeseen Events
نویسنده
چکیده
Shafer's theory of belief and the Bayesian theory of probability are two alternative and mutually inconsistent approaches toward modelling uncertainty in artificial in telligence. To help reduce the conflict between these two approaches, this paper reexammes expected utility theory from which Bayesian probability theory is derived. Expected utility theory req mres the decision maker to ass1gn a utility to each decision conditioned on every possible event that might occur. But frequently the decision maker cannot foresee all the events that might occur, i.e., one of the possible events is the occurrence of an unforeseen event. So once we acknowledge the existence of unforeseen events, we need to develop some way of assigning utilities to tlecisions conditioned on unforeseen events. The commonsensical solution to this problem is to assign similar utilities to events which are similar. Implementing this commonsensical solution is equivalent to replac ing Bayesian subjective probabilities over the space of foreseen and unforeseen events by random set theory probabilities over the space of foreseen events. This leads to an expected utility principle in which normalized variants of Shafer's commonalities play the role of subjective probabilities. lienee allowing for unforeseen events in decision analysis causes Bayesian proba*Operating Sciences Department; General Motors Research JJabs;\Varren,Michigan 48090
منابع مشابه
Gender-oriented Commonalities among Canadian and Iranian Englishes: An Analysis of Yes/No Question Variants
This study investigatesvariability in English yes/no questions as well as the commonalities among yes/no question variants produced by members of two different varieties of English: Canadian English native speakers and Iranian EFL learners.Further, it probes the role of gender in theEnglish yes/no question variants produced by Canadian English native speakers and those produced by Iranian EFL l...
متن کاملWhat is Dempster-Shafer's model?
Several mathematical models have been proposed for the modelling of someone's degrees of belief. The oldest is the Bayesian model that uses probability functions. The upper and lower probabilities (ULP) model, Dempster's model, the evidentiary value model (EVM) and the probability of modal propositions somehow generalize the Bayesian approach. The transferable belief model (TBM) is based on oth...
متن کاملA Bayesian model decision support system: dryland salinity management application
Addressing environmental management problems at catchment scales requires an integrated modelling approach, in which key bio-physical and socio-economic drivers, processes and impacts are all considered. Development of Decision Support Systems (DSSs) for environmental management is rapidly progressing. This paper describes the integration of physical, ecological, and socio-economic components i...
متن کاملBayesian Inference for Spatial Beta Generalized Linear Mixed Models
In some applications, the response variable assumes values in the unit interval. The standard linear regression model is not appropriate for modelling this type of data because the normality assumption is not met. Alternatively, the beta regression model has been introduced to analyze such observations. A beta distribution represents a flexible density family on (0, 1) interval that covers symm...
متن کاملDynamic Frailty and Change Point Models for Recurrent Events Data
Abstract. We present a Bayesian analysis for recurrent events data using a nonhomogeneous mixed Poisson point process with a dynamic subject-specific frailty function and a dynamic baseline intensity func- tion. The dynamic subject-specific frailty employs a dynamic piecewise constant function with a known pre-specified grid and the baseline in- tensity uses an unknown grid for the piecewise ...
متن کامل